🐺FOMC On Deck, Oracle Earnings, and Value Rotation Takes the Lead

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The market is pricing in a near-lock for a rate cut, but traders care far more about Powell’s tone. A dovish cut could spark a year-end rally, while a hawkish cut, signaling slower easing ahead, could dampen enthusiasm quickly.

Investors will be watching Powell’s language on future cuts, labor softness, and financial conditions to determine whether this marks the start of a sustained easing cycle or a one-and-done adjustment.

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Oracle steps into a highly scrutinized earnings moment, with investors still debating the credibility of its massive AI cloud backlog, which some analysts argue is inflated due to flexible, cancellable commitments. The question heading into the print is simple: is the backlog real, and will Oracle convert it into revenue at scale?

Adding to the skepticism, Oracle’s debt CDS spreads have widened, signaling rising concern in credit markets about leverage and the company’s ability to maintain margins while funding aggressive AI and datacenter expansion.

Expectations for the quarter:

Investors want clarity on whether the heavy spend on $NVDA hardware and datacenter buildouts will meaningfully accelerate cloud revenue or compress profitability through 2025. Oracle has delivered volatile reactions for the last few quarters, so traders are bracing for another big move.

Markets have rotated sharply into value: financials, industrials, and energy are leading, while AI-adjacent tech and high-beta names lag. Mega-cap defensives are holding firm, showing investors prefer profitability over promise in the current environment.

Adobe reports Wednesday, and expectations sit at a crossroads. Revenue should grow in the mid-teens, margins remain healthy, and AI tools add uplift across Creative Cloud. But the stock’s breakdown raises the question… is ADBE simply a victim of rotation, or is the business losing long-term momentum?

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