🐺GDP Growth Is Officially Negative...

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GDP is officially negative.

But last quarter wasn’t a typical set of circumstances.

Here’s why the official GDP numbers from last quarter don’t mean much:

Last quarter's GDP drop came from a ~40% surge in imports from companies preparing for upcoming tariffs.

Because one component of GDP is exports minus imports, GDP was officially negative.

But that was short-term noise.

If you remove that import surge, GDP displays a 4.5% growth.

Anyone can pluck numbers out of an equation and create a narrative.

But because the import surge was a one-off spike, it’s justifiable.

Anyhow, let’s look forward.

Trump claims the US has $8 trillion in new investment commitments.

Although I couldn’t identify all $8 trillion myself, here’s what I found:

• Schneider Electric $700 billion

• SoftBank $700 billion

• Nvidia $500 billion

• Apple $500 billion

And several other smaller commitments from Amazon, Toyota, etc.

Will these commitments raise GDP when fully implemented?

Highly likely. They’ll create new jobs, investments, infrastructure, etc.

Productivity will rise, and since people earn more, they’ll spend more.

So there you have it.

Don’t worry about Q1’s GDP.

Great investors have a forward tilt.

Be cautiously optimistic, don’t be a perma-bear.

If you’d like an in-depth breakdown of what's going on,

@profstonge has an excellent video on his timeline!

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