🐺 A Relief Rally, Not a Resolution

Hey everyone! Sam here (AKA @SamSolid57 on X)

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This morning’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment report gave markets exactly the kind of data they were looking for. U.S. employers added about 50,000 jobs in December, a slower pace than economists expected but still enough to signal the labor market isn’t collapsing.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to ~4.4%, better than the expected ~4.5% and the prior reading, reinforcing a narrative of cooling but not weakening economic activity. Investors spun this into optimism around growth staying resilient without rekindling aggressive monetary tightening.

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While today’s data helped, the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs remains unresolved and continues to hang over markets as a policy risk. Trade policy has a history of reintroducing volatility when investors think problems are behind them.

This decision could materially impact corporate cost structures and inflation expectations… keeping positioning cautious until clarity arrives.

Is the coast ever truly clear? Rarely. Bull markets climb despite uncertainty, not because it disappears. Today’s rally fits that pattern… progress forward, with enough unresolved risk (tariffs, data revisions, early-year labor softness) to keep positioning deliberate and selective.

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