🐺BREAKING: US STRIKES IRAN!!!

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Whether or not this qualifies as a formal war almost doesn’t matter… what matters is that we just saw the kind of geopolitical escalation the market had been pricing in but hoping to avoid.

Oil spiked over 6% in weekend trading, a clear signal that risk assets are starting to react. And as we’ve said in previous posts, if crude holds its move higher, that could feed right back into inflation expectations, complicating the soft landing narrative. Higher oil = higher CPI inputs = more pressure on long-duration assets.

But that begs the question short term… Shouldn’t $BTC, one of the riskiest assets in the world, be down 5%+ if we’ve truly ignited a massive market drawdown?

Do the bears know something that isn’t already public… something $100M+ algorithms haven’t already priced in?

Bitcoin holding up this well, amid this backdrop, tells us that either this geopolitical shock isn’t big enough yet, or liquidity is still sloshing around in the system. And that might be the key…

If you look past the headlines, we’re entering a weird regime: geopolitical tightening on the surface, but liquidity remains loose underneath. The U.S. government may need to ramp up defense and military spending, which ultimately means more money in the system to fund it. That could mean more debt issuance, more TGA drawdowns, and looser monetary effects than people think.

This is why historical comparisons to other geopolitical shocks can be tricky. Market reactions depend not just on the event, but on the liquidity environment around the event.

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