NVDA Earnings: 3rd SuperBowl of 2025

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RATE CUT SIGNALS FROM JACKSON HOLE

Jerome Powell's tone at Jackson Hole tilted decisively dovish. He flagged a shift in risks… “inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside,” opening the door to policy easing while reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to inflation control.

Markets responded with optimism: the $SPX ( ▲ 0.32% )  rallied 1.2% on the day, Treasury yields pulled back, and traders now price in an 87% chance of a September rate cut. The odds of relief are rising, but much hinges on upcoming data, especially Friday’s PCE report.

NVIDIA EARNINGS: AI, GAMING, AND CHINA IN FOCUS

All eyes turn to NVIDIA, reporting Q2 earnings today after the bell. Street estimates anticipate 53% YoY revenue growth, 50% EPS growth, and margins in the low 70s.

Here’s what the market is watching:

• Data Center growth expected to remain the backbone of results

• Gaming segment quietly accelerating, contributing more meaningfully to revenue

• Margins likely to hold strong barring unexpected charges

• Commentary on China - with H20 shipments paused and ~$20B of revenue at risk, investors want clarity on how NVIDIA plans to offset restrictions

Bottom line: a beat may not be enough without strong forward guidance, especially around China exposure.

EYES ON FRIDAY’S PCE REPORT

The July PCE report on Friday could be the week’s deciding factor. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it carries weight… especially after Powell’s dovish tone.

• Soft print: September rate cut odds move higher than the current 87%

• Hot print: the Fed may hesitate, leaving markets vulnerable to a pullback

With Jackson Hole in the rearview, NVIDIA earnings tonight, and PCE on Friday, the next two sessions will set the tone heading into September.

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Have a profitable week!

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