🐺 Policy, Chips, and the Cost of Scale

Hey everyone! Sam here (AKA @SamSolid57 on X)

I drop into your inbox a few times a week, breaking down the biggest stories in finance and the moves that matter most.

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Donald Trump outlined a new healthcare framework called the “Great Healthcare Plan,” aimed at lowering prescription drug prices and insurance premiums. The proposal comes as efforts to extend key Affordable Care Act tax credits stall in the Senate, raising the risk of higher premiums. The White House positions the plan as cost relief rather than expanded insurer subsidies.

The framework would lock in most-favored-nation drug pricing, expand direct-to-consumer discounted drug sales, and redirect insurance funding to individuals instead of insurers. It also includes cost-sharing reductions that could lower common Obamacare plan premiums by over 10%, plus broader price-transparency rules. The political appeal is clear, even if execution remains uncertain.

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The U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement to expand semiconductor manufacturing in America. Taiwanese chip firms committed at least $250B in U.S. investment, backed by $250B in credit guarantees. In exchange, the U.S. will cap tariffs at 15%, remove some duties, and grant Section 232 exemptions for U.S.-based fabs.

TSMC has already purchased land and may further expand in Arizona, with added flexibility to import equipment tariff-free during construction. The deal reduces supply-chain friction and aligns industrial policy with long-term capacity goals. For markets, it removes a layer of uncertainty around large-scale capex.

TSMC beat fourth-quarter expectations, posting NT$505.7B in net profit, up 35% year over year on strong AI demand. The key takeaway was a $52-56B capex forecast, well above expectations and a clear signal that AI investment is durable. Semiconductor equipment names like ASML rallied in response.

Management guided to roughly 30% revenue growth and reaffirmed its role as the primary chip supplier to NVIDIA. Combined with expanding U.S. operations, the message is simple, AI infrastructure spending is becoming embedded, not cyclical.

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