🐺SMALL PULLBACK OR BEGINNING OF CORRECTION?

MARKET CHECK-IN: WHERE I STAND RIGHT NOW

You know, someone asked me recently on the WOLF POWER HOUR spaces: “Where do you stand on the market today?”

But first of all… we have a full panel almost EVERYDAY on the 🐺 which you can catch at 3:00 PM EDT on X hosted by the https://x.com/WOLF_Financial account.

But here’s my honest answer. I’ll leave candlestick patterns and trendlines to those who live and breathe them. But what I am good at is reading the broader market. I look at multiple indices and macro signals throughout the day and piece together a thesis each night to gauge risk appetite.

And what I saw today? The market held up pretty well.

Yes, the S&P 500 [a basket of the 500 best companies in the world] closed flat. But under the surface, tech took a hit. The Nasdaq was down nearly 1%, with the exception of Apple, which actually closed up over 1%. That’s notable considering Apple is a massive weight in the index.

So where do we go from here? Will the market keep climbing, or go sideways from here?

A few thoughts:

First, despite the dip today, we’re still up nicely on the week.

We’ve bounced hard since the April lows, where the market dropped 18-19% from peak to trough.

Sentiment went from full-on panic to FOMO in just a few weeks.

That’s why pullbacks have been shallow… everyone wants in, but they’re waiting for a pullback that rarely comes. Then they get impatient. They buy. That’s what we’re seeing now.

Could we still get a proper 5-10% correction? Absolutely. But let’s be real: we’ve been calling for a 5-10% pullback… for the last 5-10%.

So ask yourself this: Is this a market you really want to short? Yes.. statistically the first trading day of July is very bullish. But we ended the day red.

On the flip side, would you aggressively buy short-term trades here at the highs? That’s a personal decision. If you’re investing for the long term, this is just noise. Stick to your plan. But if you’re trading short term, you need to be tactical.

Personally, I only use about 20% of my portfolio for short-term trading. That 20% has grown a lot recently, so I’ve started rotating some of it into long-term holdings. But short-term plays are where the alpha is… so they demand precision.

One of my long-term holdings is $AMZN ( ▼ 0.22% ) , and they can easily afford the massive CapEx for data center and AI buildouts. Chart below via ValueSense.io.

If I mistime an entry or exit, I risk missing upside and eating downside. That’s why being clear about your timeframe matters.

Short-term? I still think we have 10-15% upside left in this market before year-end. But I also think we’ll chop around and end the year closer to flat overall.

The key is: we’re in a very sensitive environment. Price action can shift fast. But when I look under the hood, today didn’t look like a bad day at all.

Yes, some names were down 2-3%. Personally, I was down about 1.5%, which makes sense… I’m tech heavy. That’s my risk tolerance. I accept the volatility.

So ask yourself: are you comfortable with the swings in your portfolio?

If not, you might be too concentrated in short-term trades… or you’ve sized up too much.

But if you are comfortable? Then today’s just another day in the office.

The market doesn’t move in straight lines. It goes up, pulls back, consolidates, runs again, then dips again. That’s how it works. If you’re not okay with that… maybe the market isn’t for you.

No one’s perfect in this game. I make mistakes. Everyone does. But the key is to manage risk. Use data. Use your judgment. Stay consistent.

Because the moment you stop managing risk… you’re gambling.

And gambling doesn’t end well.

Take care out there. We’re learning every day. Let’s keep going.

Have a profitable week!

Disclaimer: Wolf Financial does NOT offer financial advice. All content provided is strictly for informational purposes. Wolf Financial is not registered as an investment, legal, or tax advisor, nor as a broker/dealer. Please be aware that trading any stock or crypto-related asset carries inherent risks and may lead to substantial capital losses.