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Good afternoon. Markets rallied today. We're also at war with Iran. Those two things happened at the same time, which tells you everything about 2026 so far.
S&P 500 closed at 6,869 (+0.78%). Nasdaq finished at 22,807 (+1.29%). Dow added 238 points. Oil pulled back to $74 after spiking above $77 earlier this week. Gold is at $5,162. Bitcoin ripped past $73,000.
THE RUNDOWN
WAR › U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are now in their fourth day. Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day. A container ship was struck at the Strait today. Qatar halted LNG production. Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery went offline after drone attacks. Trump said the Navy will escort tankers "if necessary" and told reporters alongside Germany's Merz: "Everything's been knocked out in Iran." Oil spiked above $77 on Monday, pulled back to $74 on Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled measures to ease fuel prices. Goldman said only a "severe and sustained" disruption would hit global growth. That scenario isn't off the table.
TECH › The Nasdaq led a risk-on bounce, gaining 1.29%. Micron and AMD each rallied more than 5%. Broadcom and Nvidia both added over 1%. The ISM Services report helped: the U.S. service economy expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2022, while the price index inside that report cooled to a nearly one-year low. Stronger activity plus softer prices is exactly what the market wants. After hours, Broadcom's guidance underwhelmed but the company announced a $10 billion buyback through end of 2026.
CRYPTO › Bitcoin crossed $73,000, up nearly 8% in 24 hours. Partly geopolitical hedging, partly legislative: the Clarity Act (stablecoin legalization) is gaining momentum, and Trump publicly sided with crypto firms over banks on stablecoin interest. Saylor bought another 3,015 BTC last week at roughly $67,700 each. Strategy now holds 720,737 Bitcoin. The "digital gold" narrative is being tested in real time alongside actual gold at $5,162.
EARNINGS › CrowdStrike ($CRWD) beat by 4.7%, stock up 4.17%. Ross Stores ($ROST) crushed it with a 22% EPS beat and jumped 8%. Target ($TGT) posted a massive 66% beat, but the stock barely moved (down 0.4%), which tells you everything about how guidance-driven this tape is. Coming up Thursday: Costco ($COST) after market (consensus EPS $4.55) and Marvell ($MRVL) with AI/datacenter commentary in focus.
AI/DEALS › Anduril is now worth $60 billion after a new round co-led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. OpenAI closed $110 billion in funding at an $840 billion valuation ($50B from Amazon, $30B from Nvidia, $30B from SoftBank). Anthropic is on track for nearly $20 billion in annual revenue. The U.S. military used Anthropic's Claude AI during the Iran strikes, per CBS News, even after Trump ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic tech last week. The defense-AI overlap is getting complicated fast.
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THE PLAY: How to Position Through a Shooting War
The instinct when bombs start falling is to sell everything or buy everything. Both are usually wrong. Here's what actually matters for your portfolio right now.
First, the oil risk. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transit. If it stays partially disrupted, oil above $80 is the base case. If Iran fully closes it, analysts at MST Marquee said this could be three times worse than the 1970s oil embargo, with crude potentially hitting triple digits. That's the tail risk. It hasn't happened yet, and Trump's Navy escort pledge is designed to prevent it. But you should know the scenario exists.
Second, the sector playbook. Energy stocks (Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) ripped 4-5% on Monday when strikes began. Cruise lines (Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean) got destroyed, losing 5-10% in two sessions. Defense names are printing new 52-week highs. Airlines with international exposure are under pressure. If you believe the conflict stays contained (Goldman's base case), the right trade is probably buying the dip in travel and consumer discretionary once oil stabilizes. If you think this escalates, energy and gold miners are your hedge.
Third, the macro overlay. Nonfarm payrolls Friday will tell us whether the labor market is strong enough to absorb an oil shock without the Fed needing to intervene. Kashkari said Tuesday he'd expected one cut this year but is "now unsure." A hot print means the economy has a buffer. A weak print means we're absorbing a commodity shock into a slowing labor market, which is a very different setup.
The honest answer: nobody knows how long this lasts. Position sizing matters more than direction right now. Keep positions smaller than usual, use wider stops, and don't let headlines make you chase. The VIX at 28 means options are expensive, which makes defined-risk strategies (spreads, collars) more attractive than naked directional bets.
Wars end. Portfolios that survive them are the ones that didn't blow up on day four.
RALLIES RADAR 🎯
NVDA options flow is still active. Two whale-sized prints in the June 2026 $150 calls totaling $41.7 million in premium, one a likely close and one a likely open. Institutions are rolling exposure, not exiting. Nvidia's GTC event is March 16-19, and Jensen is keynoting in front of 30,000 people. If you want the full flow breakdown, it's on Rallies.
Thanks for reading! Catch you in the next one!
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