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This was the worst week of 2026. It probably won't feel like the last one.
S&P 500 closed at 6,740 (-1.33% today, -2.0% this week), its lowest since mid-December. Nasdaq fell 1.59%. Dow dropped 453 points. Oil broke above $90 for the first time in years. Gold is at $5,121. Bitcoin slid to $68,314.
THE RUNDOWN
JOBS › February nonfarm payrolls came in at negative 92,000. Not weak. Negative. That's the first decline in over two years. Over 70% of U.S. stocks fell on the data. This changes the macro picture heading into next week's CPI. A war-driven oil shock slamming into a softening labor market is the exact scenario nobody wanted. The Fed is now stuck between inflation pressure from energy and a weakening jobs backdrop.
OIL › WTI crude broke above $90 on Friday and closed with a 35% weekly gain, the largest since oil futures trading began in 1983. Trump posted that there won't be a deal without "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Iran struck an American tanker in the Persian Gulf. Qatar's energy minister told the FT that if Gulf producers stop exports, oil could sprint above $100. Some estimates put a prolonged Strait closure at $120+. United Airlines CEO said the fuel spike will have a "meaningful" impact on Q1 results. Airlines fell 4-6%.
WAR › The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut. Maersk suspended all transits. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they'll set fire to any ship trying to pass. Trump hasn't ruled out boots on the ground and said the war will likely last five weeks. The collateral damage is spreading: cruise lines fell 6%, airlines dropped 4-6%, and the only S&P sectors in the green Friday were energy, chemicals, and fertilizers (CF Industries +5%, Bunge +3%).
SEMIS › The split in semiconductors got wider. Marvell ($MRVL) surged 18.3% after beating estimates and delivering strong AI demand commentary. Broadcom ($AVGO) missed EPS ($2.05 vs $2.18 est) but announced a $10B buyback. The takeaway: the market is rewarding clean AI execution and punishing even small misses in mega-cap semis. That pattern will matter when Oracle and Adobe report next week.
LOOKING AHEAD › CPI drops Wednesday morning. With oil at $90 and payrolls negative, this is now the most important inflation print of 2026. A hot number could kill what's left of rate cut expectations. A cool number might be the only thing standing between the market and a deeper correction. Oracle reports Monday, Adobe Wednesday. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair to replace Powell. Treasury is reportedly planning to use oil futures to combat energy prices.
THE PLAY: $21 Million in Index Puts. Here's What They're Saying.
The options flow this week told you the selloff was coming before it arrived. Here's what institutional money did and what it means for next week.
Two trades stood out. An $11.46 million put was bought in SPY at the $648 strike for March 20 expiry. And a $9.88 million put was bought in QQQ at the $590 strike for September 18 expiry. That's $21 million in downside protection between them.
The SPY $648 put is a near-term hedge. The S&P closed Friday at 6,740, which means that strike is roughly 3.7% below current levels. With CPI on Wednesday and the war escalating, whoever bought this is protecting against a quick move lower through next Friday's opex. It's a defined-risk, high-conviction bet that the tape gets worse before it gets better.
The QQQ $590 put is different. September expiry means this is a multi-month portfolio hedge, not a weekly trade. Someone is telling you they expect turbulence to persist well beyond CPI week. With payrolls going negative and oil at $90, that's a reasonable thesis.
Here's the interesting counterpoint: Rallies community positioning data shows QQQ still had a positive 30-day net flow of about $54,200. Retail is still buying. Institutions are hedging. That divergence usually resolves in one direction, and it's worth watching which side blinks first.
For your own positioning: this is not the week to be a hero. If you're long, consider whether you have any downside protection at all. If you don't, spreads are cheaper than naked puts and the VIX at 26.5 makes defined-risk structures more efficient. If you're looking to add, stagger your entries. Monday's open will be noisy. Wednesday's CPI will set the real direction. Don't let either one force you into a decision with full size.
$NATO (Transatlantic Defense ETF) for the defense trade that's quietly been the best performer of 2026. $HWAY (US Infrastructure ETF) for domestic buildout that doesn't depend on the Strait of Hormuz staying open. $SPAM (Cybersecurity ETF) because every military conflict comes with a cyber escalation.
Disclosure: Themes ETFs is a WOLF Financial partner. This content is a paid partnership with ThemesETFs. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Please read the prospectus before investing.
RALLIES RADAR 🎯
The SPY put flow, QQQ hedging data, and community positioning trends are all tracked on Rallies. If you want to see how retail and institutional positioning diverge heading into CPI week, the data is live.
Thanks for reading! Catch you in the next one!
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