The Grandmaster’s Game of Tariffs

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Lately, it feels like every headline in global trade is really just a move in a much bigger game. Chips, tariffs, and capital aren’t isolated stories… they’re pieces on the same board. And the pace of play right now is accelerating.

OPENING MOVES & COUNTERPLAY

China’s opening gambit: securing access to $NVDA ( ▼ 3.33% )  H20 and $AMD ( ▼ 3.53% )  MI308 chips, the crown jewels of U.S. AI hardware. This isn’t just commerce… it’s positioning in the global race for computational dominance.

• Huawei accelerates domestic chip design to reduce reliance on U.S. supply chains

• Beijing unveils DeepSeek, one of the most advanced sovereign AI models outside the U.S.

• The reveal is bold… but possibly premature, showing ambition before securing the infrastructure to scale

The takeaway? China is signaling intent early… and the U.S. is already setting up its counter.

THE U.S. RESPONSE

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Meanwhile, Washington steps back to reassess export policy and industrial strategy, as $MSFT ( ▼ 0.58% )  $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.6% )  $META ( ▼ 1.65% )  and $AMZN ( ▼ 1.12% ) cool their data center CapEx, creating space to realign infrastructure priorities. Trump ups the pressure with 245% tariff threats on all Chinese exports, followed by a full export control lockdown on H20 and MI308 chip sales.

This slows China’s AI progress, forcing reliance on less capable domestic designs. At the same time, sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East and EU pour billions into U.S. assets… not passive capital, but strategic leverage.

THE POSITION TODAY

Negotiations are now in the middle game:

• China wants chip access

• The U.S. wants favorable trade terms and to lock in technological dominance

When export controls lift, it comes with a toll: 15% of all China H20 and MI308 revenue flows directly into Washington… roughly $23B from NVIDIA alone.

The board isn’t cleared, it’s repositioned. Short-term sales were traded for long-term leverage, fortified supply chains, and a stronger geopolitical stance.

This isn’t just a tariff dispute… it’s a deliberate endgame for technological primacy.

Thanks for reading! Check out more content like this over on my X account.

Have a profitable week!

Disclaimer: Wolf Financial does NOT offer financial advice. All content provided is strictly for informational purposes. Wolf Financial is not registered as an investment, legal, or tax advisor, nor as a broker/dealer. Please be aware that trading any stock or crypto-related asset carries inherent risks and may lead to substantial capital losses.