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Welcome back to The WOLF Letter. Markets just wrapped a strong and strange month. Here is what actually moved, what it means, and where to look as jobs week begins.
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Dell ripped 30% on $16.1B in AI server sales, yet most sectors finished May red. Plus oil cracks on a 60-day Iran ceasefire and Anthropic eyes a $900B raise. |
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Two things happened this month, and they do not fit together. The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,581, the Nasdaq capped an 8% May at its own all-time high, and yet eight of eleven sectors finished the month lower. The index is green. Most of the market is not. The split comes down to one trade. Information technology rose about 16% in May and the SOXX semiconductor index climbed 24%, while most sectors outside AI leaned lower. Dell's earnings blowout Friday was the exclamation point. Here is the week, and the tell underneath it. |
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Five Stories
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Watch Breadth,
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The headline number is doing a lot of work. The S&P 500 rose about 5.3% in May and closed the month at a record, but underneath that green print, eight of eleven sectors actually fell. When an index climbs while most of its sectors decline, the rally is being carried by a few names. Right now those names are AI hardware, semis, and mega-cap software, and almost nothing else. 01 · What The Tape Is Hiding Information technology gained roughly 16% in May while the SOXX semiconductor index ran 24%. Strip those out and the month looks flat to lower. That is the definition of narrow leadership, and it is why a single report like Dell's can swing the whole tape. 02 · Why Goldman And The Bears Both Have A Point Goldman just raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,600, betting the AI engine keeps pulling. The other side of the table sees a crowded trade where too much rides on too few balance sheets. Both can be right until breadth resolves the argument. 03 · The Tell To Watch Next week is jobs week: JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, ISM Services Wednesday, and the jobs report Friday. If the labor data cools and money rotates out of mega-cap tech into the other ten sectors, the rally gets a second engine and breadth heals. If tech keeps carrying it alone, you are in a narrower market than the record highs suggest. The tell is the equal-weight S&P against the cap-weight S&P. Watch that spread through jobs week. |
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Monday: Jobs Week Kicks Off, Jensen Takes The COMPUTEX Stage, And This Week's WOLF Pick. |
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The WOLF Letter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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Important Disclosures
Trading futures and crypto perpetuals involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please review Vest Markets' terms and disclosures before trading. Disclosure: This content is a paid partnership with Vest Markets. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Vest Markets is a WOLF Financial partner. |
WOLF Financial publishes The WOLF Pick for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
The research and analysis referenced in this edition was prepared by independent third-party sources and shared with WOLF Financial for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement by WOLF Financial. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: This content is a paid partnership with Vest Markets. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Vest Markets is a WOLF Financial partner.

