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Happy Friday. Markets are closed for Good Friday, which means you can't lose money today. That alone makes it the best trading day of the year.
The last session was wild. The Dow dropped 668 points intraday, reversed almost all of it by the close, and finished down just 61. WTI crude ripped 12% to $111.54 after Trump said he'd send Iran "back to the stone ages." And somehow, all three major indexes posted their best weekly gains since November 2024. S&P 500: 6,582.69 (+3.4% weekly). Dow: 46,504.67 (+3%). Nasdaq: 21,879.18 (+4.4%). WTI: $111.54. Gold: $4,702. Bitcoin: $66,810. VIX: 23.87.
None of that makes it feel calm.
THE RUNDOWN
WAR › Oil had one of its most violent days of the year. WTI surged 12% to $111.54 after Trump told the nation the Iran war would last "two to three weeks" more and threatened to bring Tehran "back to the stone ages." At the lows, the Dow was down 668 points and the S&P was off 1.5%. Then Iran's state media reported that Tehran is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reversed sharply, with all three major indexes finishing roughly flat. Meanwhile, several hundred Special Operations forces, including Army Rangers and Navy SEALs, have arrived in the Middle East as Trump weighs ground operations.
MARKETS › Q1 is in the books, and it wasn't pretty. The S&P 500 finished the quarter down roughly 4.6%, its worst performance in four years. But the final week told a different story. The S&P gained 3.4%, the Nasdaq popped 4.4%, and the Dow added 3%, the strongest weekly showing since November 2024. The tension between those two numbers is the entire market right now: ugly macro, but stocks that refuse to stay down for long. Warren Buffett was asked this week if stocks look cheaper after the selloff. His answer was one word: "No."
EARNINGS › Tesla reported Q1 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles, missing Wall Street's estimate of roughly 372,000. The company produced 408,386, which means it built about 50,000 more cars than it delivered. That's an inventory build, not a demand signal. Model S and X production has officially ended. Full earnings come April 22, where Musk will need to explain how Tesla hits growth targets when it needs to average 444,000 deliveries per quarter for the rest of the year.
POLICY › The Trump administration announced 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports unless drugmakers either cut prices or produce drugs domestically. This dropped in the final minutes of Thursday's session. Pharma and biotech names will be in focus when markets reopen Monday. The tariff threat covers a broad swath of the sector and could reshape how investors think about drug company margins for the rest of the year.
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THE PLAY: The Smartest Investors Can't Agree. That's the Signal.
Q1 ended with the S&P 500 down 4.6% and oil up more than 60% since January. It was the worst quarter for stocks in four years. And two of the most respected names in investing just gave you completely opposite advice.
Buffett says no.
Buffett was asked this week if the selloff made stocks look cheaper. His answer: "No." He reminded investors that Berkshire has fallen more than 50% three separate times under his watch and that this dip doesn't qualify as a buying opportunity yet. Berkshire is sitting on over $300 billion in cash and short-term Treasuries. He's willing to deploy it, but says we're "not close" to the kind of decline that would trigger that.
Ackman says yes.
Bill Ackman posted this week that it's time to buy the dip. His logic is more forward-looking: Q1 is over, the worst is priced in, and in about 45 days, 13F filings will reveal what the biggest institutional investors did during the selloff. If the smart money was buying while retail was selling, that's a powerful confirmation signal.
What to make of the disagreement?
When Buffett and Ackman split, it usually means the market is in a genuine gray zone. Not obviously cheap. Not obviously expensive. Just uncertain. That's when process matters more than prediction. If you're sitting on cash, this probably isn't the moment to go all-in, but it might be the moment to start building positions in names you want to own for years. Moody's AI recession model sits at 49%, and that reading was taken before the war started. Oil at $112 changes the math on everything from consumer spending to corporate margins.
The playbook: be selective, stay liquid, and pay attention to April 22 (Tesla earnings) and the 13F filings in mid-May. The biggest investors in the world are about to show you exactly what they did in Q1. That's worth waiting for.
RALLIES RADAR
Rallies is tracking how AI models are positioning through the volatility. The current Rallies AI Hedge Fund portfolio holds $UBER, Interactive Brokers ($IBKR), Gilead ($GILD), Raytheon ($RTX), and Emcor ($EME). That's a mix of defense exposure, healthcare stability, and financials that benefit from active trading volume. Worth checking how AI positioning compares to what Buffett and Ackman are doing.
WOLF Financial provides market commentary and educational content for informational purposes only. The views expressed are those of the individual authors or analysts and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Nothing published by WOLF Financial should be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. Investing in securities, ETFs, and digital assets involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
The research and analysis referenced in this edition was prepared by independent third-party sources and shared with Wolf Financial for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement by WOLF Financial.
Disclosure: This content is a paid partnership with Trade The Pool. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of capital.