In Partnership with
Hey everyone! The WOLF Financial team here!
We drop into your inbox a few times a week, breaking down the biggest stories in finance and the moves that matter most.
Letâs get into it
Two things are true this morning. Intel just dragged semis into another record run, and Brent crude is still holding above $104 with Gulf output down 57% from pre-war levels.
That is the split market: AI leadership is saying risk-on, while energy and inflation are telling the Fed to stay careful. Thursdayâs completed close had the S&P 500 at 7,108.40, the Nasdaq at 24,438.50, and the Dow at 49,310.32. By Friday morning, Nasdaq was green, Dow was red, and the market was asking one question: can chips outrun oil?
The Rundown
AI
Intel $INTC reported Q1 revenue of $13.6B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, then guided Q2 revenue to $13.8B-$14.8B. The stock was up more than 22% Friday morning, AMD $AMD jumped double digits, and the SOX index was riding an 18-session winning streak. Thatâs the tell: AI demand is still strong enough to pull old-school chip names back into the spotlight.
Oil
Brent was near $104.78 and WTI was near $94.83 Friday, even after easing intraday. Goldman estimated Gulf crude output is down 14.5M barrels per day, or 57% from pre-war levels. P&G $PG just put a number on the pain, warning of a $1B after-tax fiscal 2027 profit hit from higher oil prices. A bounce is not a bottom when the margin pressure is this visible.
Macro
April consumer sentiment fell to 49.8, the lowest reading on record. Gas above $4 is no longer just a consumer story. It is a Fed story, a margin story, and a confidence story. Powell can ignore day-to-day market noise. He cannot ignore inflation expectations rising while oil is still hot.
Space
SpaceX is turning into a public-market event before it even lists. Reuters reported this week that the company refinanced debt with a $20B bridge loan before its IPO filing, while investors continue circling what could become one of the largest IPOs ever. Space is no longer just a moonshot story. Lower launch costs are becoming infrastructure, and infrastructure is where the next revenue streams get built.
Space is having its moment. Artemis II is putting humans on a trajectory back to the Moon for the first time in 50 years. A SpaceX IPO is reportedly set for June, and the financial world is paying attention. Investors looking to get a piece of the action donât need to wait on the sidelines.
The Tema Space Innovators ETF ($NASA) is the first pure-play space ETF to provide direct, pre-IPO exposure to SpaceX through a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
SpaceX is to space what Nvidia is to semiconductors: a dominant, category-defining force. SpaceX now accounts for more than half of all successful orbital launches globally. The company has almost single-handedly driven the cost of launching objects into orbit sharply lower, while its Starlink broadband network and reusable rocket technology form compounding advantages that no rival is close to matching. Thatâs why SpaceX is the top holding in $NASA.
But $NASA isnât just about SpaceX. The rest of the portfolio reflects equally high-conviction ideas that remain underfollowed by many growth investors. Rocket Lab is the only scaled domestic launch provider outside SpaceX, with vertical integration spanning launch systems and spacecraft manufacturing. Its upcoming Neutron rocket positions the company to compete more directly with Falcon 9. AST SpaceMobile is building the worldâs first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to standard smartphones, with the potential to expand connectivity to billions of new and underserved users. And Planet Labs operates the worldâs largest fleet of Earth-imaging satellites, delivering near-daily coverage of every point on the planetâs landmassâcreating a unique data archive that grows more valuable each year as AI unlocks new insights.
The global space economy is forecast to grow from roughly $630 billion today to $1.8 trillion by 2035. The steep decline in launch costs that enabled Starlink is now opening the door to entirely new applicationsâ from persistent Earth observation to data and computing infrastructure in orbit. The opportunity is real, structurally underrepresented in most portfolios, and accelerating. $NASA was built to fill that gap.
Are you in?
SpaceX is a private security, and is less than 15% of holdings. At inception, SpaceX was 10% of the portfolio holdings. Fund holdings are subject to change. Private investments have increased liquidity and valuation risk. View temaetfs.com/NASA for current holdings and prospectus. Consider fund risk and objectives before investing. Distributed by Vigilant Distributors, LLC. No affiliation with, or sponsorship/endorsement by National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
COMMUNICATED - DISCLAIMER: https://wolf.financial/blog/tema
This content is a paid partnership with Tema ETFs. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Please read the prospectus before investing.
The Play
The Marketâs Real Fight
The strongest part of the market is not âtechâ broadly. It is AI infrastructure. Intelâs guide, AMDâs move, Metaâs AWS compute deal, and the SOX streak all point to the same thing: investors are still paying for companies tied to chips, compute, data centers, and physical AI capacity.
The Tax Is Oil
That does not mean the market gets a free pass. Brent above $104 changes the math for airlines, logistics, consumer staples, industrials, and retailers. P&Gâs $1B warning matters because it turns the oil shock from a chart into an income statement. That is where macro stress becomes earnings stress.
The Fed Is The Referee
The Fed decision lands April 29, the same day Microsoft $MSFT, Alphabet $GOOGL, Amazon $AMZN, and Meta $META report after the close. That is the entire market compressed into one day: rates, AI capex, cloud demand, margins, and whether mega-cap earnings can still carry the tape.
Smart money is watching the revision cycle. If AI earnings estimates keep moving higher while oil stabilizes below $105, the market can keep leaning into semis and infrastructure. If Brent pushes back toward $110 and mega-cap guidance sounds cautious on Apr. 29, the tell is the Nasdaq losing leadership while the 10Y yield refuses to break lower.
Rallies Radar
Todayâs cleanest signal is the split between AI infrastructure strength and oil-driven consumer stress. See how AI models are positioning through the semiconductor rally and energy shock:
