🐺WAR VOLATILITY RETURNS, OPPORTUNITY EMERGES?

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The market’s been on a strong run since mid-April, no doubt about that.
April lows shook out a lot of investors, but since then we’ve seen a steady climb, with a brief push in early June, t’d people thinking we’d break out for good.

But over the past couple of weeks?
We’ve mostly just chopped sideways.

Recent Market Action

We’re hovering just under the previous all-time high. And despite some strong individual performances, the broader market has struggled to punch through that resistance level. This kind of price action tends to frustrate both bulls and bears… It’s not a clean breakout, and it’s not a breakdown either.

That’s the backdrop.
And toward the end of this post, we’ll walk through one specific trade setup we’re watching closely, especially for subscribers looking to stay tactical in the coming weeks.

Shifting Sentiment

What's catching our attention now is the shift in sentiment.
A lot of people are starting to capitulate to this move.
Large speculators are positioning heavily, and we’re seeing a clear uptick in exposure to risk assets across the board.

Even the AAII sentiment survey, which we watch closely, is flashing signs of optimism.
It just printed its lowest bearish reading since January, a meaningful shift.

That’s notable… because just a month ago, the same survey was overwhelmingly bearish.
People didn’t believe the rally.
They were hesitant, skeptical, calling it a dead-cat bounce or a trap.

Now?
Some of those same voices are turning bullish.
That’s often when we start to see the dynamics change… not necessarily because the market is broken, but because sentiment is finally catching up to price, and that’s usually when things get trickier.

We’re not calling a top here.
But we’re also not ignoring the signals.

Our Positioning

If you’ve been following this newsletter, you know we’ve been bullish since April, leaning into strength when others were pulling back.
That positioning paid off.
But as of last week, we’ve started to get a little more cautious.

We haven’t liquidated the portfolio.
We’re not going risk-off.
But we are watching closely, tightening up our exposure where needed, and being more selective with new entries.

That said, we still stand on one core belief… we are in a bull market.
We may not know where the next 5% or 10% move lands… but we’re confident the next 20% is higher.

Even $MSTR Strategy is bullish on the Prospero.ai app. We consistently refer to our favorite tool for sentiment and positioning checks.

That’s the bigger picture.
And that’s where our conviction stays anchored.

Technical Levels and Trade Setup

Moving averages matter.

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