🐺 Santa Claus Rally and January Barometer: Fun Trends, Flawed Predictions...

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COMMUNICATED - DISCLAIMER

In financial media, certain phrases often capture attention, such as "sell in May and go away" or "September seasonality." Lately, two recurring themes have dominated headlines: the "Santa Claus Rally" and the "January Barometer."

The Santa Claus Rally refers to a historical trend where markets rise during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. This year, however, the rally hasn’t lived up to expectations—though there’s still time for a turnaround.

Meanwhile, the January Barometer suggests that January's performance predicts whether the market will finish the year up or down. Despite its popularity, many overlook its lack of consistency in delivering accurate forecasts.

The data tells the story. Over the past seven years, both indicators have been wrong 3 out of 7 times, giving them no better predictive power than a coin flip. Their correlation with annual market returns is minimal at best.

While these phrases make for great conversation starters, investors should treat them as market trends to watch rather than reliable tools for forecasting. Solid investment strategies require deeper insights, not catchy slogans.

Have a great rest of your Holidays and Happy New Year!!

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Have a Blessed Weekend!

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