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Every Monday, Wolf Financial breaks down one stock making noise for all the right reasons. One ticker. One thesis. Full breakdown.
This week's Wolf Pick: Nokia ($NOK)
Most people hear Nokia and think of the indestructible brick phone from 2004. Wall Street's version isn't much better. Until recently, consensus treated Nokia as a slow-moving European telecom equipment vendor trapped in the 5G spending hangover. That mental model just broke.
Nokia closed Friday at $13.30, a 16-year high. The stock is up roughly 166% over the past 12 months from a 52-week low of $4.00. Three things happened in the last six months that sell-side models haven't fully absorbed, and they all point in the same direction: Nokia is re-rating from a low-multiple telecom laggard into a credible AI infrastructure name.
The NVIDIA signal and the orders that followed
In October 2025, NVIDIA committed $1 billion of its own balance sheet to Nokia at $6.01 per share. That's not a strategic press release partnership. That's real money at a specific price, anchoring Nokia inside NVIDIA's AI-RAN initiative with T-Mobile for field trials at the end of this year.
Then Q1 2026 earnings landed on April 23 and reset the conversation. According to independent research shared with Wolf Financial, Nokia booked ā¬1.0 billion of AI and Cloud orders in Q1 alone. AI and Cloud net sales grew 49% year over year. Gross margin expanded 320 basis points to 45.5%. Free cash flow jumped 40%. Network Infrastructure book-to-bill (the ratio of new orders to revenue shipped) ran at roughly 3x in AI and Cloud.
The number that matters most is one management revised on the earnings call. At their November Capital Markets Day, Nokia framed its AI and Cloud addressable market as growing at a 16% compound rate through 2028. Five months later, that figure was revised to 27%. The reason: hyperscaler capital expenditure expectations for 2026 jumped from $540 billion to over $700 billion. The entire bull case got 30% larger in five months.
Management raised segment guidance accordingly. Network Infrastructure growth went from 6-8% to 12-14%. Optical and IP Networks went from 10-12% to 18-20%. But they held the group-level operating profit guide flat at ā¬2.0-2.5 billion. They raised the top of the funnel without raising the bottom. That's the setup for a beat-and-raise pattern through the back half of the year.
The defense business nobody is modeling
On April 30, Anduril announced its 5G Comms Sentry Tower (CST), co-developed with Nokia Federal Solutions. The CST deploys in under three hours with no external power or infrastructure required, delivers 1+ Gbps throughput with sub-10 millisecond latency, and runs on Anduril's Lattice software stack. It replaces three legacy options that all fail modern requirements: narrowband radios (too slow), satellite (too much latency), and commercial cellular (nonexistent in combat zones).
Research reviewed by Wolf Financial notes that Anduril already has over 400 Sentry towers deployed globally across U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Army, Navy, and allied programs. Every installation is a candidate for a 5G CST upgrade. Anduril's own revenue trajectory tells you the scale: roughly $2.1 billion in 2025, projected at $4.3 billion in 2026, with a rumored $20 billion Army contract in negotiation.
Sell-side models have zero CST or defen se contribution in any Nokia forecast through 2028. Zero.
Space is having its moment. Artemis II is putting humans on a trajectory back to the Moon for the first time in 50 years. A SpaceX IPO is reportedly set for June, and the financial world is paying attention. Investors looking to get a piece of the action donāt need to wait on the sidelines.
The Tema Space Innovators ETF ($NASA) is the first pure-play space ETF to provide direct, pre-IPO exposure to SpaceX through a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
SpaceX is to space what Nvidia is to semiconductors: a dominant, category-defining force. SpaceX now accounts for more than half of all successful orbital launches globally. The company has almost single-handedly driven the cost of launching objects into orbit sharply lower, while its Starlink broadband network and reusable rocket technology form compounding advantages that no rival is close to matching. Thatās why SpaceX is the top holding in $NASA.
But $NASA isnāt just about SpaceX. The rest of the portfolio reflects equally high-conviction ideas that remain underfollowed by many growth investors. Rocket Lab is the only scaled domestic launch provider outside SpaceX, with vertical integration spanning launch systems and spacecraft manufacturing. Its upcoming Neutron rocket positions the company to compete more directly with Falcon 9. AST SpaceMobile is building the worldās first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to standard smartphones, with the potential to expand connectivity to billions of new and underserved users. And Planet Labs operates the worldās largest fleet of Earth-imaging satellites, delivering near-daily coverage of every point on the planetās landmassācreating a unique data archive that grows more valuable each year as AI unlocks new insights.
The global space economy is forecast to grow from roughly $630 billion today to $1.8 trillion by 2035. The steep decline in launch costs that enabled Starlink is now opening the door to entirely new applicationsā from persistent Earth observation to data and computing infrastructure in orbit. The opportunity is real, structurally underrepresented in most portfolios, and accelerating. $NASA was built to fill that gap.
Are you in?
SpaceX is a private security, and is less than 15% of holdings. At inception, SpaceX was 10% of the portfolio holdings. Fund holdings are subject to change. Private investments have increased liquidity and valuation risk. View temaetfs.com/NASA for current holdings and prospectus. Consider fund risk and objectives before investing. Distributed by Vigilant Distributors, LLC. No affiliation with, or sponsorship/endorsement by National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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This content is a paid partnership with Tema ETFs. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Please read the prospectus before investing.
The pluggables ramp that sell-side isn't running
The third angle is the one optical analysts are watching and everyone else is ignoring. Nokia's coherent pluggables business (small modules that move data through fiber optic cables, replacing older, bulkier equipment) did roughly ā¬151 million in 2025 revenue. That number is about to accelerate sharply.
Independent analysis reviewed by Wolf Financial projects Nokia's pluggables revenue scaling from ā¬281 million in 2026 to ā¬627 million by 2028, a 49% compound growth rate. Nokia is one of only four companies globally with a credible next-generation roadmap for these modules, alongside Cisco, Marvell, and Ciena. After acquiring Infinera in early 2025, Nokia is the only vendor vertically integrated across the chip, the optics, and the system, with a domestic manufacturing facility in San Jose that no competitor can match.
The modeling disconnect is stark. Consensus still projects Nokia's Optical and IP Networks segment at roughly 5% organic growth. Bottom-up analysis puts it closer to 15%. That gap puts 2026-2028 EPS estimates 13-15% below where they should be.
Where it trades and what to watch
Nokia trades at roughly 30x forward earnings. It's no longer at telecom equipment multiples (Ericsson sits at 11-13x). But it's nowhere near optical infrastructure multiples (Ciena at 77x, Arista at 47x). That middle ground is where the re-rating question lives.
Analyst price targets scattered across the board last week after Q1 earnings. Barclays, still rated Sell, hiked its target 54%. JPMorgan went to ā¬12. Morgan Stanley to ā¬11. Argus upgraded to Buy at $15. The dispersion itself tells you consensus is being dragged, not leading.
Q2 earnings (estimated July 21-23) should show pluggable revenue continuing to ramp. NVIDIA's AI-RAN field trials with T-Mobile begin late 2026. Next-generation 1.6T pluggable samples ship in Q4. And the Anduril CST will start appearing in Anduril's growth narrative throughout the year.
Risks worth noting: Q2 historically prints only 24-28% of full-year operating profit, so sequential moderation is normal. Supply constraints remain real, with 12-18 month optical lead times. And hyperscaler concentration risk is rising. These are pacing risks, not directional ones.
Thanks for reading! Catch you in the next one!
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Wolf Financial publishes The Wolf Pick for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
The research and analysis referenced in this edition was prepared by independent third-party sources and shared with Wolf Financial for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement by Wolf Financial. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: This content is a paid partnership with Tema ETFs. This information is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investing in ETFs involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Tema ETFs is a WOLF Financial partner.