🐺 WOLF PICK: $TTWO And The Path To $14 EPS

NBA 2K just reaccelerated to +37% RCS growth. Google Play drops its take rate to 20% on June 30. GTA VI ships November 19. The Street hasn't modeled any of it.

Take-Two Interactive $TTWO

Most expensive-looking stocks really are expensive. Once in a while, a stock that looks expensive is hiding a denominator problem in the model.

Take-Two Interactive heading into its May 21st earnings is the second kind. A research briefing reviewed by our editorial team this week makes a clean case for why.

The math is simple. TTWO trades at roughly 25x to 28x forward earnings, well above the gaming peer median. The pushback writes itself: everything is priced in, GTA VI is already baked. But forward multiples are a fraction. The numerator is the stock price. The denominator is consensus EPS. And the denominator has not absorbed four separate tailwinds already in motion.

What's Actually Happening

Take-Two Interactive owns three of the most valuable franchises in interactive entertainment: Rockstar Games (Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption), 2K (NBA 2K, WWE 2K, Civilization), and Zynga (Toon Blast, Empires & Puzzles, Match Factory). The company reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on Thursday, May 21st after the close.

Consensus has the quarter at roughly $0.56 EPS on $1.55B in net bookings, in line with company guidance. Those numbers are not the catalyst. The catalyst is what management says about fiscal 2027 and what investors learn about four structural shifts the Street has not yet modeled.

On stage with MoneyShow this July, Caesars Palace, Las Vegas. Here's why he's going, and why you should be in the room.

A New Age of Investing and Trading in Transformative Technologies

Let's be honest — the last few years were almost too easy if you were holding the right AI and Big Tech names. But that trade has gotten a lot more complicated. We're hearing more questions about the AI boom – and we're seeing real rotation now. Money is starting to move out of last year's darlings and into places that felt "boring" 18 months ago — industrials, energy, value, income. The major indices are still near all-time highs, and Wall Street's long-term outlook for stocks hasn't fallen apart. But what's working underneath the surface looks very different than it did in 2024.

On top of that, the Fed isn't done being restrictive, inflation hasn't gone away quietly, and geopolitical flare-ups keep popping up – putting oil, commodities, and real assets squarely into any market conversation.

Bottom line: This is a market where active allocation and real risk management actually matter again. That's a big part of why I'm looking forward to speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas, scheduled for July 19-22 at Caesars Palace.

It'll be four days of keynotes, workshops, live trading, and MoneyMasters Courses — all digging into transformative technologies, hard assets, income strategies, and alternatives. Not surface-level stuff. Real ideas, specific names, and up-to-date thinking on where the opportunity is in the second half of 2026 and beyond.

Plus, you'll have a blast in Las Vegas doing it – with MoneyShow's signature social and networking events waiting at every turn! If you want to be in the room when the conversation (and fun!) happens, I hope to see you there.

I look forward to meeting you in person.

Gav Blaxberg
CEO
WOLF Financial

Stack The Four, Get To $14 EPS

Consensus FY27 EPS is in the high single digits. BofA's implied FY27/FY28 EPS sits closer to $12.30, back-solved from the recently raised $320 price target at 26x.

An aggressive but defensible bull case where NBA 2K international prints, the Google fee flow-through hits, DTC scales to 25%+, and GTA VI launches into the enlarged installed base at $80 ASP gets you to roughly $14 of FY28 EPS. That is a 30%+ gap to consensus.

The 4-To-1 Asymmetry

The bear case requires a third GTA VI delay (the game has already slipped twice) or mobile deterioration severe enough to swamp the Google and DTC tailwinds. In that scenario, the stock probably tests $180-$190. The 52-week low is $187.63.

There is also a hard private-market floor. The EA take-private deal at $210/share and $55B EV cleared regulatory approvals in early April, establishing a comp for the publisher group at roughly 21x forward EPS. Take-Two with GTA VI six months out is unlikely to trade below that floor.

To the upside, base case FY28 EPS of $12 at 26x pencils to $310 (roughly 40% upside from here). Bull case at $14 EPS and 30x gets to $420 (nearly a double). Sell-side consensus is already 26 of 28 at Buy with one Sell.

The Tell Is The FY27 Guide

The Q4 print itself is not the tell. The tell is the FY27 net bookings guide. Management has been using language like "record levels of net bookings in fiscal 2027" and "new financial baseline." That is corporate-speak for "the GTA VI year is going to be enormous."

A guide of $9-$10B is roughly in line with whisper. A guide of $11B+ would be a clear breakout signal and should drive the stock through the $232 implied earnings move ceiling toward $260+.